The countdown to the 2016 CrossFit Open is on! Top competitors are fine tuning their programming, and everyone is spending a little extra time focusing on form, our aerobic engines, and really nailing the gymnastic movements so that we put our best foot forward in this year’s 5-week competition.

It seems like every year the conversation and anticipation over what the workouts will be each week during the Open gets bigger and bigger. With last year being the first to offer a scaled version of the competition, Dave Castro and the programming minions at CrossFit HQ turned some of our predictions on their head with the addition of ascending ladders, one-rep maxes, multi-part workouts (we’re talking to you 15.1 and 15.1a), complex gymnastic movements, and even a super challenging row and thruster workout without a time cap.

The workouts last year proved to be both challenging, and in some cases controversial, and 2016 will likely be no different.

Here at FitnessHQ, we want to give you our best predictions using trends from the past five years of competition, what we know about the evolution of the sport and some best guesses from Games athletes to be ready for the action!

In previous years, the first workout has always set the tone for what’s to come over the next five weeks of competition. Prior to the scaled option, athletes could always count on the first workout to be an accessible movement — typically something gymnastic like burpees or double unders, coupled with a light weight snatch.

In 2015, we saw that assumption get shaken up when Dave Castro pulled a nine-minute AMRAP triplet out of his hat that combined toes to bar with light deadlifts and snatches, followed by 15.1a which was a one rep max clean and jerk.

We think in 2016 you’ll see something similar to kick off the competition. It seems like CrossFit is really trying to separate the top 10 percent right off the bat in competition, and by including a longer AMRAP with at least one complex gymnastic movement coupled with a one rep max lift, they are able to quickly see who the well-rounded athletes are.

So with all that speculation, our prediction for 16.1 is:

16.1

10-minute AMRAP

10 Snatches (75/115 pounds)

20 Burpees

16.1a

Athlete has 6 minutes to establish:

Clean and Jerk 1 rep max

Spencer Hendel thinks we’ll see burpees too.  Let’s face it, love ’em or hate ’em, they always seem to pop up in the Open!

Traditionally, the second week of the Open is a totally mixed bag of movements. This workout is usually something progressive, has a common thread of putting some weight up overhead, and is typically a triplet or a couplet. Outside of that, it seems like we really never know what we’re going to get!

We know that some of the more complex gymnastic movements have been showing themselves earlier in the Open, so our prediction for 16.2 is:

8-minute AMRAP

Row 3 Calories

3 Shoulder to Overhead (135/95 pounds)

3 HSPU

Row 6 calories

6 Shoulder to Overhead (135/95 pounds)

6 HSPU

Row 9 calories

9 Shoulder to Overhead (135/95 pounds)

9 HSPU

and up the ladder by 3s until time is up or your arms pop off.

Week 3 of the Open can be a bit of a hodgepodge, but in years past we’ve seen one common thread — the wall ball. If it hasn’t made an appearance in the first two workouts, it usually pops up in week 3, and in abundance.

We’re betting on having a few of these this year as well.  Since we’re seeing more an more devious twists on some of our favorite girls (can we say Naughty Nancy from the 2013 Games, or Double Grace in 2014) we think we might see a spicy twist on Mary this year.

Games favorite Lucas Parker is also betting on athletes needing to show off their one-legged action.

Our prediction for 16.3 is:

20-minute AMRAP

50 Wall Balls
10 Pistols
15 Chest to Bar Pull Ups

There’s nothing quite like a good chipper, and Dave Castro loves to test an athlete’s engine AND gymnastic skills in the same workout, so we have a feeling that the fourth week of workouts is when he’ll throw that combination our way.

That said, we also agree with Alessandra Pichelli that this could be the year that we see an element of running in the WOD.

Here’s our prediction for the 16.4 Chipper:

9-minute AMRAP

50 meter (or yard?) Sprint/Shuttle Run (we’re thinking it’s going to be a down and back tagging the line at the end type of deal)

40 Deadlifts (115/75 pounds)

30 Toes to Bar

20 Clean and Jerk (115/75 pounds)

10 Muscle Ups

In most years of the Open, the programming has included a repeat workout from a past year.  We think 2016 will be no different, and as traditionally the last week includes the most grueling workouts we’ve ever experienced, at FitnessHQ we think that we’re in for a repeat from the burpee and thruster combination from 2014 (a.k.a. the day I wished for death for darn near a half hour).

Here’s our prediction f0r 16.5:

21-18-15-12-9-6-3 reps for time of:

Thrusters (95/65 pounds)

Burpees over the Bar

 

What do you think?  Did we get any of the workouts right, or even close?  What movement are you most looking forward to seeing in the Crossfit Open this year?